Vice President Qin Zhanxue: The home industry is welcoming the era of "good curve"
Qin Zhanxue, Vice President of Building Materials Circulation Association
[Reporter] Hello Professor Qin, I am very glad to have the opportunity to interview you. The eight countries that have been disturbed have been officially introduced. How do you think this regulation will affect the home building materials market?
[Qin Zhanxue] The introduction of the National Eight Articles will be a negative for the home building materials market. This kind of bearishness is caused by the fact that rigid demand is more intense in anticipation of real estate price cuts. There has been a lot of reasons for the continuous rise in property prices, such as the “arbitrage†of international capital, hot money ran in; and some domestic investors have to keep value, so the price has not fallen.
After the introduction of the new country eight, investors should feel the coolness, and these rigid demanders also feel: this time the real estate really wants to cut prices, they will not buy a house, do not buy a house, there is no decoration, directly leading to the market to become cold. From BHI's point of view, this situation is also reflected: November, December, January... has been declining, and this situation will not change in the short term.
[Reporter] How long will your expected "short term" last?
[Qin Zhanxue] Our building materials and home furnishing market completely follows the trend of real estate. After the first round of the real estate market falls, there will be a small climax in the building materials and home furnishing market. Those who really want to buy a house will come out and drive the development of the building materials home market. But the fall will not end, but there will be another round until the real estate industry thinks that it is "bottoming out". When investors think it is worth buying, China has a saying that "buy up and not buy down", rigid demand Will emerge. All in all, the direction of real estate will be a favorable process of “falling – steady – then falling – bottoming outâ€, and rigid demand is expected to enter the market during the platform period after the first round of decline.
The development of real estate has not stopped, the supply of real estate is increasing, and the housing security of the country is also increasing. Recently, the share of cement and glass has risen, indicating that supply is growing. The construction of canals and high-speed rails does not require the use of glass. Only the construction of residential and commercial properties will use glass in large quantities. I think that commercial real estate will rise sharply this year. In this case, the building materials home market should consider an "alternative" route - to transfer to e-commerce.
The decoration of some affordable housing is purchased by the group, not for display consumption, not for impulse consumption, but for rational consumption. The whole quality and price are very important. The design engineer first designs and then purchases, giving priority to the design status, taking quality and price as reference, and not relying on the product display of the enterprise. In this case, e-commerce will be very convenient. There are also some large cities such as Beijing, and the houses under construction within the five rings are required to be refurbished, which means group purchases. Enterprises must adapt to this change. In the case that ordinary people do not buy houses or decorate, enterprises should change their thinking and develop a centralized purchasing model for e-commerce.
If the building materials and home furnishing market can become an engineering supporting market, and undertake the functions of recommending and selecting engineering customers, and strengthening services, it can completely promote the upgrading of the market and transform into a purchasing center for home building materials. In the era of rational consumption, relying on real services to obtain rise. Practice internal strength, improve service, and spend the glacial period of the market together. Once the real estate price is stable, the market will improve.
Real estate game enters the decisive stage of building materials industry "good" and "bad" hedge
[Reporter] You have a very positive idea about the trend of housing prices, and believe that house prices will definitely fall.
[Qin Zhanxue] House prices will definitely fall. However, the extent and rate of this decline depends on the game between the central government and the local government. When will the situation of local governments rely on the ground to eat, resolutely stop high land prices, strengthen supporting measures, and control will have a real change. The land is always in high prices, so the construction of affordable housing can only be a piece of paper. Under the expectation of falling real estate prices, the market will not be good. In the “glacial periodâ€, the home building materials market should do a good job of stimulating consumption and creating consumption, stimulate the re-decoration of existing property, and increase the creative value of products and the speed of replacement. Although there are many problems, our home building materials market is still very promising.
Our market is a bit too "great" now. It is 300,000 square meters and 400,000 square meters. In fact, the profitability per unit area is very low. I suspect that the people who do this are considering the future transition to commercial real estate. When commercial real estate is about to become popular, it will be occupied by land. Once commercial real estate is up, it can be transformed into a commercial department store center, and the income from rent and sale is expected to increase. I also believe that commercial real estate will have a good development. Therefore, I believe that real estate regulation is bad for the residential market and good for commercial real estate. In the case of “hedgingâ€, the entire building materials home market will not experience a significant decline, but will have a smooth transition.
[Reporter] After the introduction of the Eighth National Article, how to design the business model of the home building materials industry is the most reasonable?
[Qin Zhanxue] E-commerce must be targeted, not big and empty. The entire home building materials market will undergo great changes after the “National Eight Articlesâ€, and it can be said that it will be frozen for the time being. We judge that a company can achieve a smooth transition as long as it cultivates its internal strength, manages its management, and walks out of its own characteristic path. Now our industry is too homogenous, too big, and the unit's profits are falling. Such competition is unhealthy, operators are not profitable, and rents are affected.
How to measure the stakes is a question that the big players in the home market should consider. I think the role of the store should also be improved. Now we see that companies in the circulation field are going out, Red Star, and even these companies have advertised on CCTV. Including the global building materials procurement center that Jinsheng Group is building, the final area will reach 8,000 mu, with a total investment of 14.8 billion. Although the success is not certain, it is at least a big improvement for our home building materials industry. It is a sign that these companies are changing their minds. They have various centers for design, display, logistics and distribution. They are very comprehensive and will be transformed into a productive service industry. I think this is a welcome change.
[Reporter] The state has introduced three control policies, and developers and buyers may feel this determination.
[Qin Zhanxue] As the saying goes, "One drum is mad, then fading, and three is exhausted", just to explain the psychological changes of real estate developers. If the three rounds of regulation can not make the housing price loose, it does not rule out the possibility of further action by the government. The current high housing prices are already a matter of national economy and people's livelihood, a policy issue.
Recently, Mubarak of Egypt stepped down because of many factors, but there is a paradox in Egypt and the international community: "Egyptian housing prices have risen to the same level as China." That is to say, housing prices will threaten governance. And accumulation will be difficult to return. The central government is very artistically regulating these things, not only to make the people's mentality stable, but also to prevent the national economy from being greatly damaged. If there is a message now, the price of a certain place will fall sharply, and the domino effect will appear. Until the rigid demand is fully emerging. I suggest that you should not use residential dwellings as investment products, but only use them as consumer goods, and use commercial properties as investment products. That is completely without problems.
At present, the state is increasing the construction of affordable housing and low-rent housing, and ensuring supply is fundamental. The decline in the price of real estate cannot depend on policies. If the output of a house reaches a certain level, it will naturally fall.
[Reporter] Thank you for accepting our interview and wishing that the association's work this year will be carried out smoothly.
[Qin Zhanxue] Ok, I am very happy, thank you.
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